Manufacturing’s long-term future looks bright after rough 2023

Manufacturing industry insights

• The manufacturing industry sees a mixed recovery post-COVID, with growth projections tempered by inflation and economic uncertainty.
• Mobile robot market anticipates exponential growth driven by flexible manufacturing, e-commerce, labor shortages, and changing consumer habits.
• Machine vision faces setbacks but anticipates growth fueled by evolving technologies and expanding applications in various industries.

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The manufacturing industry has had many ups and downs this decade due to the COVID-19 pandemic and its unique circumstances. It created some highs as the economy and society slowly returned to normal and some lows as companies tightened their belts down to overextending themselves and inflation concerns in the last year.

This has led to some uncertainty, but the future, according to three Interact Analysis researchers, is bright during a presentation at Automate 2024 in Chicago that shared some of their findings on the industry during a press event.

Manufacturing growth overview

Research manager Blake Griffin discussed the current state of the global manufacturing economy, which has doubled in value since 2007 to almost $45 trillion by 2023. While there was a major slowdown because of the COVID-19 pandemic, growth shot up in a big way in 2021 and has tapered off since. He said they’re projecting minimal growth in 2024 followed by a rebound in 2025 with overall growth expected to jump 15% by 2028.

“Sentiment right now is not optimistic,” he said. “It’s not the doom and gloom like the bottom is falling out, though.”

Many companies, due to a shrinking backlog and inflation concerns, have adopted a wait-and-see approach. In the U.S., those inflation concerns are hitting everyone and it’s caused concerns about what the future holds. Griffin said many of the companies they surveyed aren’t spending due to the economic uncertainty, which is causing additional headaches. The backlogs they had from 2021 to 2022 due to supply chain disruptions and very high demand persist, but they also are starting to recede.

Griffin said it’s unlikely inflation is going to go back to 0% like it did for most of the 2010s. There will be inflation in the future, but it’s unlikely to reach the highs of 2022.

Mobile robot industry remains strong due to unique circumstances

The mobile robot market is still a young, but growing, industry and it is expected to triple in value from $5 billion today to $15 billion by 2027, said Ash Sharma, managing director for Interact Analysis.

Sharma said there are many drivers for this including:

• Transition to flexible manufacturing

• Rise of e-commerce

• Lack of labor and rising labor costs

• Changing buying habits and consumer expectations

• Trends toward local manufacturing for short supply lines and delivery times.

The industry, which was in the early stages a few years ago, has taken the next step forward to meet these expectations, Sharma said.

“For the last five years, it’s been pilot projects and proof-of-concepts. Now they’re going to the next phase. Instead of buying 10 robots, they’re buying hundreds.”

Fulfillment centers, in particular, are driving much of this growth. Companies like Amazon are not only investing in these robots, but they’re making it a centerpiece and this is expected to only continue. Sharma said 1 in 10 fulfillment centers have at least one mobile robot.

Other industries expected to have major revenue growth are automotive, food and beverage and semiconductor.

In general, Sharma said the trend is leaning toward mobile automation and many are turning to it to reduce operating costs while improving reliability, productivity and accuracy.

Machine vision looking for strong drivers

The machine vision industry, compared to mobile robots, had a tough 2023. The industry declined by almost 3% in 2023 due to overstocking in 2022, which led to a glut of products that needed to be consumed in 2023, said Tim Dawson, senior research director for Interact Analysis. Several key industries for machine vision performed badly and price declines also had a negative impact on growth.

Major industry drivers that have a high impact on machine vision industry revenues include manufacturing and automation growth, stocking and destocking and emerging industries and new applications.

Artificial intelligence (AI), however, was not listed as one, grading as medium. The reason, Dawson said, is because the technology is being integrated over time and vendors struggling to monetize the opportunity, which is why its impact isn’t as strong. That could well change as technology develops.

Machine vision segments set for big growth in the next several years include 3D and machine vision software, which have grown more sophisticated. Industries set to benefit the most in the next several years include battery development and production, agriculture and logistics. All require precise imaging to keep production running smoothly and safely.

Dawson said growth will return to the machine vision market along with the rest of the manufacturing industry and is expected to grow from $6.5 billion in 2023 to almost $9.5 billion by 2028 for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4%.

Chris Vavra, senior editor, Control Engineering, WTWH Media LLC.

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